Parameter estimation method using an extended Kalman Filter

Fast parameter estimation is a non-trivial task, and it is critical when the system parameters evolve with time, as demanded in real-time control applications. In this study, a new computational approach for parameter identification is proposed based on the application of polynomial chaos theory. The polynomial chaos approach has been shown to be considerably more efficient than Monte Carlo in the simulation of systems with a small number of uncertain parameters. In the framework of this new approach, a (suboptimal) Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is used to recalculate the polynomial chaos expansions for the uncertain states and the uncertain parameters. As a case study, the proposed parameter estimation method is applied to a four degree-of-freedom roll plane model of a vehicle for which the vertical stiffnesses of the tires are estimated from periodic observations of the displacements and velocities across the suspensions. The results obtained with this approach are close to the actual values of the parameters. In addition, the EKF approach gives more information about the parameters of interest than a simple estimated value: the estimation comes in the form of a probability density function. The approach presented in this paper has shown great promise for an improvement in the computational efficiency of current parameter estimation methods. Possible applications of this theory to the field of off-road vehicle simulations include the estimation of various vehicle parameters of interest, as well as the estimation of parameters related to the tire-terrain contact

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) --- the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model --- are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1312.504

HIV Epidemic Appraisals for Assisting in the Design of Effective Prevention Programmes: Shifting the Paradigm Back to Basics

To design HIV prevention programmes, it is critical to understand the temporal and geographic aspects of the local epidemic and to address the key behaviours that drive HIV transmission. Two methods have been developed to appraise HIV epidemics and guide prevention strategies. The numerical proxy method classifies epidemics based on current HIV prevalence thresholds. The Modes of Transmission (MOT) model estimates the distribution of incidence over one year among risk-groups. Both methods focus on the current state of an epidemic and provide short-term metrics which may not capture the epidemiologic drivers. Through a detailed analysis of country and sub-national data, we explore the limitations of the two traditional methods and propose an alternative approach.We compared outputs of the traditional methods in five countries for which results were published, and applied the numeric and MOT model to India and six districts within India. We discovered three limitations of the current methods for epidemic appraisal: (1) their results failed to identify the key behaviours that drive the epidemic; (2) they were difficult to apply to local epidemics with heterogeneity across district-level administrative units; and (3) the MOT model was highly sensitive to input parameters, many of which required extraction from non-regional sources. We developed an alternative decision-tree framework for HIV epidemic appraisals, based on a qualitative understanding of epidemiologic drivers, and demonstrated its applicability in India. The alternative framework offered a logical algorithm to characterize epidemics; it required minimal but key data.Traditional appraisals that utilize the distribution of prevalent and incident HIV infections in the short-term could misguide prevention priorities and potentially impede efforts to halt the trajectory of the HIV epidemic. An approach that characterizes local transmission dynamics provides a potentially more effective tool with which policy makers can design intervention programmes

Redefining palliative care-a new consensus-based definition

Context: The International Association for Hospice and Palliative Care developed a consensus-based definition of palliative care (PC) that focuses on the relief of serious health-related suffering, a concept put forward by the Lancet Commission Global Access to Palliative Care and Pain Relief. Objective: The main objective of this article is to present the research behind the new definition. Methods: The three-phased consensus process involved health care workers from countries in all income levels. In Phase 1, 38 PC experts evaluated the components of the World Health Organization definition and suggested new/revised ones. In Phase 2, 412 International Association for Hospice and Palliative Care members in 88 countries expressed their level of agreement with the suggested components. In Phase 3, using results from Phase 2, the expert panel developed the definition. Results: The consensus-based definition is as follows: Palliative care is the active holistic care of individuals across all ages with serious health-related suffering due to severe illness and especially of those near the end of life. It aims to improve the quality of life of patients, their families and their caregivers. The definition includes a number of bullet points with additional details as well as recommendations for governments to reduce barriers to PC. Conclusion: Participants had significantly different perceptions and interpretations of PC. The greatest challenge faced by the core group was trying to find a middle ground between those who think that PC is the relief of all suffering and those who believe that PC describes the care of those with a very limited remaining life span

Constraints on the structure and seasonal variations of Triton's atmosphere from the 5 October 2017 stellar occultation and previous observations

Context. A stellar occultation by Neptune's main satellite, Triton, was observed on 5 October 2017 from Europe, North Africa, and the USA. We derived 90 light curves from this event, 42 of which yielded a central flash detection. Aims. We aimed at constraining Triton's atmospheric structure and the seasonal variations of its atmospheric pressure since the Voyager 2 epoch (1989). We also derived the shape of the lower atmosphere from central flash analysis. Methods. We used Abel inversions and direct ray-tracing code to provide the density, pressure, and temperature profiles in the altitude range similar to 8 km to similar to 190 km, corresponding to pressure levels from 9 mu bar down to a few nanobars. Results. (i) A pressure of 1.18 +/- 0.03 mu bar is found at a reference radius of 1400 km (47 km altitude). (ii) A new analysis of the Voyager 2 radio science occultation shows that this is consistent with an extrapolation of pressure down to the surface pressure obtained in 1989. (iii) A survey of occultations obtained between 1989 and 2017 suggests that an enhancement in surface pressure as reported during the 1990s might be real, but debatable, due to very few high S/N light curves and data accessible for reanalysis. The volatile transport model analysed supports a moderate increase in surface pressure, with a maximum value around 2005-2015 no higher than 23 mu bar. The pressures observed in 1995-1997 and 2017 appear mutually inconsistent with the volatile transport model presented here. (iv) The central flash structure does not show evidence of an atmospheric distortion. We find an upper limit of 0.0011 for the apparent oblateness of the atmosphere near the 8 km altitude.J.M.O. acknowledges financial support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) and the European Social Fund (ESF) through the PhD grant SFRH/BD/131700/2017. The work leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Community's H2020 2014-2021 ERC grant Agreement nffi 669416 "Lucky Star". We thank S. Para who supported some travels to observe the 5 October 2017 occultation. T.B. was supported for this research by an appointment to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Post-Doctoral Program at the Ames Research Center administered by Universities Space Research Association (USRA) through a contract with NASA. We acknowledge useful exchanges with Mark Gurwell on the ALMA CO observations. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (https://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium).Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. J.L.O., P.S.-S., N.M. and R.D. acknowledge financial support from the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award to the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709), they also acknowledge the financial support by the Spanish grant AYA-2017-84637-R and the Proyecto de Excelencia de la Junta de Andalucia J.A. 2012-FQM1776. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under Grant Agreement no. 687378, as part of the project "Small Bodies Near and Far" (SBNAF). P.S.-S. acknowledges financial support by the Spanish grant AYA-RTI2018-098657-J-I00 "LEO-SBNAF". The work was partially based on observations made at the Laboratorio Nacional de Astrofisica (LNA), Itajuba-MG, Brazil. The following authors acknowledge the respective CNPq grants: F.B.-R. 309578/2017-5; R.V.-M. 304544/2017-5, 401903/2016-8; J.I.B.C. 308150/2016-3 and 305917/2019-6; M.A. 427700/20183, 310683/2017-3, 473002/2013-2. This study was financed in part by the Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior -Brasil (CAPES) -Finance Code 001 and the National Institute of Science and Technology of the e-Universe project (INCT do e-Universo, CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). G.B.R. acknowledges CAPES-FAPERJ/PAPDRJ grant E26/203.173/2016 and CAPES-PRINT/UNESP grant 88887.571156/2020-00, M.A. FAPERJ grant E26/111.488/2013 and A.R.G.Jr. FAPESP grant 2018/11239-8. B.E.M. thanks CNPq 150612/2020-6 and CAPES/Cofecub-394/2016-05 grants. Part of the photometric data used in this study were collected in the frame of the photometric observations with the robotic and remotely controlled telescope at the University of Athens Observatory (UOAO; Gazeas 2016). The 2.3 m Aristarchos telescope is operated on Helmos Observatory by the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens. Observations with the 2.3 m Aristarchos telescope were carried out under OPTICON programme. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730890. This material reflects only the authors views and the Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. The 1. 2m Kryoneri telescope is operated by the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens. The Astronomical Observatory of the Autonomous Region of the Aosta Valley (OAVdA) is managed by the Fondazione Clement Fillietroz-ONLUS, which is supported by the Regional Government of the Aosta Valley, the Town Municipality of Nus and the "Unite des Communes valdotaines Mont-Emilius". The 0.81 m Main Telescope at the OAVdA was upgraded thanks to a Shoemaker NEO Grant 2013 from The Planetary Society. D.C. and J.M.C. acknowledge funds from a 2017 'Research and Education' grant from Fondazione CRT-Cassa di Risparmio di Torino. P.M. acknowledges support from the Portuguese Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia ref. PTDC/FISAST/29942/2017 through national funds and by FEDER through COMPETE 2020 (ref. POCI010145 FEDER007672). F.J. acknowledges Jean Luc Plouvier for his help. S.J.F. and C.A. would like to thank the UCL student support observers: Helen Dai, Elise Darragh-Ford, Ross Dobson, Max Hipperson, Edward Kerr-Dineen, Isaac Langley, Emese Meder, Roman Gerasimov, Javier Sanjuan, and Manasvee Saraf. We are grateful to the CAHA, OSN and La Hita Observatory staffs. This research is partially based on observations collected at Centro Astronomico HispanoAleman (CAHA) at Calar Alto, operated jointly by Junta de Andalucia and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (IAA-CSIC). This research was also partially based on observation carried out at the Observatorio de Sierra Nevada (OSN) operated by Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (CSIC). This article is also based on observations made with the Liverpool Telescope operated on the island of La Palma by Liverpool John Moores University in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias with financial support from the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council. Partially based on observations made with the Tx40 and Excalibur telescopes at the Observatorio Astrofisico de Javalambre in Teruel, a Spanish Infraestructura Cientifico-Tecnica Singular (ICTS) owned, managed and operated by the Centro de Estudios de Fisica del Cosmos de Aragon (CEFCA). Tx40 and Excalibur are funded with the Fondos de Inversiones de Teruel (FITE). A.R.R. would like to thank Gustavo Roman for the mechanical adaptation of the camera to the telescope to allow for the observation to be recorded. R.H., J.F.R., S.P.H. and A.S.L. have been supported by the Spanish projects AYA2015-65041P and PID2019-109467GB-100 (MINECO/FEDER, UE) and Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT1366-19. Our great thanks to Omar Hila and their collaborators in Atlas Golf Marrakech Observatory for providing access to the T60cm telescope. TRAPPIST is a project funded by the Belgian Fonds (National) de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under grant PDR T.0120.21. TRAPPIST-North is a project funded by the University of Liege, and performed in collaboration with Cadi Ayyad University of Marrakesh. E.J. is a FNRS Senior Research Associate